I once read that if you don’t “get” something…a sport, a classic book or film, 90% of the time it’s your fault. Not because you’re stupid, but because you haven’t invested the time or it’s not the right moment for you.
Some things have a steep on-ramp. Formula 1. Royal Tennis. Test cricket.
Others are more instantly gratifying. Pickleball. Padel. T20s. One-night stands.
What I’ve learned, painfully, joyfully, repeatedly, is that the things with delayed payoff tend to deliver deeper, longer-lasting rewards. They also carry a higher risk of disappointment. That’s the trade-off. A happy and healthy family, children and long-term relationships…these things are far more rewarding than any one-night stand.
Which brings me to Test cricket.
Yes, that Test cricket. Five days. A snooze on the couch. Boring. Long lunches. Games that end in draws. Hours where absolutely nothing happens. Yes, that Test cricket.
You can watch for five days, and your team loses because of a rogue bounce off a cracked wicket. Or it is a draw because it rained on day five.
Cricket has justice, but not always immediately.
It has luck, but only in the short term.
Over time, the better team built on a foundation of strong fundamentals and patience usually wins.
Property is exactly the same.
Some properties win like a T20: huge short-term growth, lots of noise, very rare (and often risky).
Most collapse spectacularly: like the stocks of a certain English opening batsman in this year’s Ashes. In fact, collapse like most of the English batsmen trying to go for too much, too early.
And some properties are more like Rahul Dravid.
“Mr Dependable.”
“The Wall” of Indian Cricket.
No flash. No gimmicks. Just flawless technique, patience, concentration, and a career that compounded into one of the greatest of all time.
Melbourne, fortunately, is full of properties with good batting technique.
If it bleeds, it leads.
The front page has been on a rotating roster of fear: cost-of-living crisis, housing crisis, Ukraine, Gaza, Bondi, Trump, Venezuela, youth crime, immigration panic. Terror sells papers. Always has.
There’s no evidence that trickle-down economics works.
But trickle-down sentiment absolutely does.
The people still reading newspapers daily tend to be older, and more pessimistic. (“Back in my day…”). That sentiment flows downhill through families, dinner tables, WhatsApp groups, and eventually… wallets.
My suspicion (unprovable, but observable) is that the people holding multigenerational wealth are currently more conservative than usual.
So, what does that mean for Melbourne property?
It could go one of two ways:
Given Australia’s global brand (safe, stable, great Education and Healthcare, relatively isolated) I struggle to believe that international eyes won’t turn down under. When the world feels fragile, Australia still looks like a decent pavilion to wait things out.
People are fed up.
Whether intentional or not, Victoria has systematically eroded investor confidence. (And yes, never attribute to malice what can be explained by ignorance.)
In Melbourne’s inner-city, I hear three complaints every single day:
Government-bashing is a national sport, but this feels different. Some of the most capable and high net worth investors simply refuse to deploy capital in Victoria on principle.
That removes an entire slice of demand from the buyer pie.
The upside?
Owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers, are stepping into apartments that used to be pure investments. Inner-city owner-occupier demand is strong.
The downside?
Without investor demand rebalancing the market, prices are capped by affordability, interest rates and debt servicing.
Which leads us back to the unresolved Australian paradox:
Is housing an asset class or a human right?
And can it realistically be both?
Until there’s either a policy reversal or a change of government (the election is expected for 28 November 2026), the market is likely to remain soft.
Most economists are now tipping at least two rate rises in the first half of 2026.
For sellers waiting for “just one more good year,” this is bad news.
Last year made the relationship brutally clear:
Rates up, prices down.
Interest rates hit sentiment from both directions:
This is the clearest signal through all the noise: 2026 is unlikely to be a growth year.
If you’re holding, make sure you’re waiting for a full Test series, not a one-day match. Think Spring 2027 and beyond.
If you must sell in 2026, sooner is going to be better than later, and make sure the presentation, marketing and pricing are as precise as Mitchell Starc in his first over (very).
If people think prices will rise, they do.
If people think prices will fall, they do that too.
The wealth gap is widening, and property is where it shows up most clearly.
Affordable, well-located properties are flying.
Luxury homes (at almost every level) are struggling.
Not because they’re bad… but because they’re price sensitive.
What we’re seeing on the ground in South Yarra is fascinating:
Some buyers are actively zigging while others zag.
Cashed-up families are quietly buying into Melbourne’s dip.
Because when in doubt, zoom out.
Historically, the number of flat or negative years in Melbourne property is very small. Past performance isn’t a guarantee, but it does offer perspective.
The critical point?
Pricing.
A $500,000 apartment and a $50,000,000 trophy home are governed by the same laws:
Supply. Demand. Target market.
And usually… one or two buyers who set the real pricing ceiling.
If something isn’t selling, whether it’s a Punt Road studio or a Toorak mansion, it’s usually presentation, marketing, pricing… or all three (and the last one can kill any campaign).
Buyers are there.
They’re just cautious.
And they need to be handled carefully.
Melbourne is special.
South Yarra is uniquely so.
It contains some of the highest-priced real estate in the city, and some of the lowest, within the same postcode.
Healthcare. Education. Sport.
Proximity to the best of Melbourne.
But you don’t need selling on the location.
Long term? We’re bullish. Melbourne has been lagging behind the other states in Oz, but for how long?
Short term? If you’re considering selling in 2026:
And if you don’t need to sell, and don’t have a better use for the equity, waiting is often the smartest move. Keep your powder dry until late 2027 if you have time on your side
Some might say that’s a strange thing for an agent to recommend.
But just like Test cricket, property rewards those who understand when to play defensively…
and when to wait for the loose ball.
The sunburnt country of clay soil and hallowed turf
England should've been watching more kookaburras and caught less of Noosa’s surf.
A rivalry built on bad blood since 1882,
A down underdog now on top 35 / 32
Balmy nights and armies thirsty for blood and beer,
Englands collapse was so quick, a new format, the two-day test is here.
Too many verses about where they come from,
But no melody to save them when Starcs first over's on song.
A hard pitch needs soft hands,
but that extra bounce won't save you when Travis sends it into the stands.
All this talk of Bazball is boring at best,
being aggressive at the right time has always been the test.
There's nothing better than watching the Aussies Dismantle the Brits And watching their captain get hit in the balls is a bonus, just for kicks.
The world's changing it always has, from tests to the one-day era and now 20/20 but for those in the know, the reasons to watch the purest form are a plenty.
Ebbs and flows like a giant tide, yet somehow every tiny moment matters.
The poms bowlers can't find their length, and the only tons are from Aussie Battlers
Burnt bails by colonials with a superiority complex,
Your little brother's all grown up now and has you covered in all aspects
The ashes in urn were meant to mark the death of English cricket
And that would be enough for us, bashing poms? We wouldn't miss it.
but Australians all let us rejoice, and praise Don, Dennis and Shane
…the cremation actually marked the birth of our reign.
With a brand new year comes a clean slate, and along with it a fresh and positive outlook on Melbourne’s property investment landscape.
What will 2026 bring for buyers and sellers?
It’s that time of year again. The days get longer, the streets get twinklier, and inflatable Santas start popping up in yards around Melbourne.
As we close out 2025, it’s clear to me that Melbourne’s property market has not only rebounded but is gearing up for a genuine awakening in 2026.
All of our agents have the experience and local knowledge to guide you
Whether selling or investing, an appraisal of value will give you the confidence to make an informed decision
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